Docklands News

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects house prices to fall 10% from a peak seen in Q4 2022, while transactions will drop by 20% from the high seen in the closing quarter of last year, reducing tax revenues from stamp duty by £5bn next year alone. There were 1.48m transactions in 2021 and 1.26m last year. They are projected to fall to 1.09m this year and 1.03m in 2024, but to rise to 1.35m by 2027. The OBR says the decline in values and activity will be driven by “'low consumer confidence, the squeeze on real incomes, and the expectation of mortgage rate rises.” The OBR also says the average rate on outstanding mortgages is expected to peak at 4.2% in 2027, 0.8 percentage points lower than forecast in November, before falling to 4.1% at the beginning of the following year. 

Daily Mail (15/03/2023)   Metro (15/03/2023)   The Daily Telegraph (15/03/2023)   The Times (15/03/2023)  

Total values of new mortgage lending fell by a third (33.5%) in the final three months of last year, compared with the previous three months, Bank of England data show. The £58.4bn of lending agreed was 24.5% less than a year earlier, according to Bank figures. The share of mortgages advanced in the fourth quarter of 2022 with LTV (loan-to-value) ratios above 75% decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, to 37.0%, but remained slightly higher than a year earlier. The value of outstanding balances with arrears increased for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, by 4.6% to £13.6bn. Around 72,000 homeowners are now behind on payments. The share of mortgages in arrears rose from 0.78% to 0.81% of total outstanding.

Daily Mail (14/03/2023)   The Daily Telegraph (14/03/2023)   The Independent (14/03/2023)  

A new consumer duty placed on financial services providers could lead to lenders being more cautious and fewer people able to access mortgages, the chief executive of a trade association has said. David Postings told UK Finance's annual mortgage lunch that the measure was a "well-meaning idea". Mr Postings also said there is a need to remain vigilant as the housing stock changes to meet environmental objectives. He said: “I worry that the easy policy option – pushing lenders to go green at a pace that essentially just greens balance sheets and not the housing stock – might prove hard to resist optically. This approach could have the unintended consequence of either creating energy-inefficient properties that are un-mortgageable or penalising those homeowners who cannot make the change easily.”

City AM (13/03/2023)   Daily Mail (13/03/2023)   Evening Standard (13/03/2023)   The Independent (13/03/2023)  

The cost of a mortgage on a first home is typically around £42 per month cheaper than renting, but the difference has reduced and in some parts of the UK renting may be the less expensive option, analysis suggests. First-time buyers could typically pay around £971 per month for a three-bedroom home, while renters would potentially be forking out around £1,013, according to calculations by Halifax. The difference of around £500 per year between buying and renting is down from a peak reached in 2016, when owners were saving £1,567 annually. 

City AM (15/03/2023)   Daily Mail (15/03/2023)   The Daily Telegraph (15/03/2023)   The Guardian (15/03/2023)  

Halifax figures show the average UK house price was £285,476 in February, 1.1% higher compared with January and 2.1% higher than this time last year. It followed a monthly gain in house prices of 0.2% in January and a fall of 1.3% in December. Kim Kinnaird, the director of Halifax Mortgages, said: “Recent reductions in mortgage rates, improving consumer confidence, and a continuing resilience in the labour market are arguably helping to stabilise prices following the falls seen in November and December.” Halifax said house prices are down by about £8,500, or 2.9%, on the August peak but remain almost £9,000 above the average prices seen at the start of 2022 and are still above pre-pandemic levels. Halifax said annual house price growth slowed in all countries and regions in February, with the north-east posting the biggest slowdown, to an annual rate of 1.1% from 3.6%, with homes costing an average £163,953. Average house prices in London are £526,842, down by 0.9% over the last year.  

The Guardian (07/03/2023)   The Independent (07/03/2023)   The Times (07/03/2023)  

In The Telegraph, Melissa Lawford looks at how the post-pandemic return of workers to London is set to result in a property shortfall in the capital. The Greater London Authority forecasts the population to rise by 700,000 by 2031 and JLL predicts the capital needs another 300,000 rental properties in the next eight years. Overall, by 2031, JLL estimates London will have a shortfall of 110,500 rental homes. Emma Rosser, of JLL, warned: "In reality, this could be far higher, given the headwinds to home ownership and the challenges for small landlords limiting supply levels." 

The Daily Telegraph (06/03/2023)