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Economists are upping their forecasts for UK house prices, with the value of the average home now predicted to rise by 3% in value over the next year. Experts say the momentum the market gained following the Conservative victory at the general election is likely to continue building up over the next 12 months. Some regions are expected to see price growth of up to 4% this year with the Midlands and the North tipped to lead the way, but the London market is likely to remain subdued. Official figures due to be released next week for house prices in December are predicted to show the first stirrings of the market revival. In the year to November, prior to the General Election, prices were starting to show improvement with a rise of 2.2% compared to 1.3% in the year to October. The EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury's own economic computer model, has now raised its forecast for house price growth from 2% to 3%. “There is pretty compelling evidence that there has been a pick-up,” said Howard Archer, Item's chief economist.
The Mail on Sunday (18/02/2019)
Banks are increasingly shunning first-time buyers in expensive areas and instead targeting mortgages at more wealthy customers. New mortgage caps were introduced by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in 2014 meaning that only 15% of a lender’s customers could borrow more than 4.5 times salary. However, the rules have inadvertently punished first-time buyers and house hunters on middle-incomes. These customers typically need to borrow greater sums of money in order to afford a property. However, a report from the FCA found that these are the customers who have seen their mortgage choice limited. Since the rules were implemented, there has seen a marked decrease in the number of loans being given to struggling young borrowers. For example, the study found that the proportion of five times income loans to first-time buyers had fallen from 40% to 32% since the rules were implemented. Instead, banks have concentrated on attracting high earners, with the salary needed to take out high loan-to-income loans growing from £41,951 to £48,953. This is well above the average salary of £30,420.
New research by the Economic and Social Research Council shows that housing in parts of London and the South East is experiencing the worse levels of overcrowding for 40 years. The study found that between 1971 and 2011, overcrowding increased in 31% of neighbourhoods in the capital, with outer London areas seeing the highest private renting cost rises. The boroughs of Newham and Brent were the most affected. In 33% of neighbourhoods in London the number of homes available per person was lower in 2017 than at any time since at least 1991.
The Times (18/02/2020)
The Far East Consortium has unveiled plans for a £250m residential-led scheme in Canary Wharf. The Hong Kong-based developer acquired Ensign House and an adjoining surface car park for £28.25m, a 49,000 sq ft site on the north side of Marsh Wall, a five-minute walk from Canary Wharf station. The new scheme will sit directly opposite FEC’s planned Consort Place, due for completion in 2023, which comprises 634 residential units and a 231-room hotel. John Connolly, FEC’s head of UK development, said the company would work with Tower Hamlets Council to “provide affordable homes to locals, transforming the surrounding area into a much-needed quality public realm and a highly desirable place to live”.
Property Week (11/02/20)
London Green has secured a £34m finance facility from specialist lenders Aldermore, Lendhub and Proseed Capital, to fund the conversion of a large Canary Wharf commercial unit into 99 micro-apartments and nine new-build units. The project has a gross development value of £55m.
Property Reporter (11/02/20)
UK house prices are rising at their fastest annual rate for nearly two years, jumping 4.1% year-on-year in January, taking the price of an average home to £240,054, according to Halifax. From December, prices rose 0.4%, and climbed 2.3% on a quarterly basis, Halifax’s house price index revealed. Russell Galley, a managing director at Halifax, said there were several signs of a pick-up in the housing market, including more buyer and seller activity, consistent with a reduction in uncertainty in the UK economy. Halifax said it expected a “moderate” rate of house price growth over the course of the year as demand was likely to continue to exceed the supply of properties for sale across the UK because of the “subdued” pace of new building.
The Times (07/02/20)