Docklands News

Experts do not expect mortgage rates to fall below 4% before the end of this year. Ross Murphy, senior adviser at Capricorn Financial Consultancy, says the outlook for mortgage rates for the coming year is “optimistic", noting that with swap rates falling, the market is “increasingly seeing rates slide into the region of 4%-4.5% as a result”. Iwona Hovenko, a real estate analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, does not expect mortgage rates to fall below 4% this year but says it is a possibility in 2024, especially in the second half of the year. Chris Sykes, technical director at Private Finance, says the prospect of a deal offering a rate below 4% by the end of this year is “no more than a dream”. However, he says larger lenders might be able to price products as low as 3% - 3.5% by the end of 2024. Moneyfacts data shows that the average two-year deal is currently 6.08%, while a typical five-year deal is 5.68%. 

City AM (27/11/2023)  

Data from the Bank of England shows that mortgage approvals totalled 47,400 October, up from 43,700 the month before. Net approvals for remortgaging increased from 20,600 in September to 23,700 in October. The increase in new home loans came as the Bank held interest rates on the back of inflation falling to 4.6%, leading a number of lenders to offer cheaper mortgage deals. The data also showed that gross lending fell from £18.1bn in September to £16.2bn in October. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate is now 5.56%, down from 5.77% a year ago, while the average five-year fixed mortgage rate is now 5.14%, down from 5.52%. Imogen Pattison, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said the “trough in mortgage approvals is behind us” but warned that with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much below 5% until the second half of next year, “demand is likely to remain weak by normal standards".

City AM (29/11/2023)   Financial Times (29/11/2023)   The Daily Telegraph (29/11/2023)   The Independent (29/11/2023)   The Times (29/11/2023)  

Data shows that hundreds of thousands of London rental homes could be converted into Airbnb-style short-term lets, leading to a potential shortage in the long-term rental market. Research by Propalt reveals that over a fifth of short-term lets in London were previously occupied by longer-term tenants, and more than 10,000 homes are owned by landlords transitioning to holiday-style rentals. The trend is driven by the desire for higher returns and lower fees. Experts predict that this shift could result in a significant reduction in the availability of long-term lets. However, there is hope for a rebalance as landlords may tire of the additional obligations of short-term lets. 

London Evening Standard  

House prices are expected to decline by 4.5% next year, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR's forecast suggests that prices will have fallen by 7.6% from their peak by the end of 2023 and it will take the price of an average UK home to a low of £266,000. The OBR's predictions have improved by 2.4 percentage points since March. However, the forecast indicates a fall of 4.7% in 2024 due to high mortgage rates. The OBR said transactions would fall by 6.9% in 2024, a 1.9 percentage point steeper decline than its March forecast, as mortgage rates remained stubbornly high and deterred buyers. Average mortgage rates are predicted to rise from 2% in 2021 to peak at 5% in 2027. That is 0.8 percentage points higher than the forecast in March and 2.2 percentage points above the average for the last decade. 

The Daily Telegraph   The Times   Daily Mail  

Post-pandemic, the house price gap between rural and urban properties is bigger than ever, according to analysis of Land Registry sales by the estate agency Jackson-Stops. The average rural property now costs £347,278 compared to £295,526 for its urban counterpart, a difference of 18%. The pandemic has caused a surge in demand for rural properties, but now that people are returning to the office, properties closer to urban areas are performing better. The popularity of rural areas has caused a crisis for some residents who have been priced out of their towns and villages. The southwest is the only region where rural prices are still rising, up 2% this year. The average rural home in the southwest costs 20% more than an urban property. The Cambridge-Oxford arc has also seen increased demand for rural properties due to flexible working and lifestyle trends. 

The Times  

New research has found that English councils are sitting on plans for 2m homes that could help to solve the housing crisis. The research, carried out by the Short Term Accommodation Association, show that planning departments claim they have space to build nearly 2m new homes, about 1.5m of which could be completed in the next five years. Birmingham city council claims it has capacity for nearly 44,000 residential properties in the next five years, while London boroughs claim they could collectively provide 331,712. Andy Fenner, chief executive of the association, said: "This is a distraction from the real problem, which is that not enough new homes are being built. Two of the biggest contributing factors to this are nimbyism and a planning system that is no longer fit for purpose. We are told there is a housing crisis, and yet councils are permitted to stretch their runway of housing delivery years into the future." 

The Times